Faculty Database - TSUCHIYA YOICHI

Books and Papers

Conference Presentations

Academic Qualifications

Career History

Major Subjects

Academic Associations Membership

Research Topics, Consignment Studies & KAKENHI Researches

Web Sites

Current Specialized Field

（Last updated : 2024-10-25 11:12:26）

TSUCHIYA YOICHI
Department Undergraduate School , School of Commerce

Position Professor

■ Books and Papers

1.	2024/11	Article	Dark Web Activity in the Japanese Language Between 2004 and 2020: A Case Study of the Onion Channel Deviant Behavior 45(11),pp.1550-1567 (Collaboration)
2.	2024/08	Article	Conservatism and information rigidity of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's growth forecast: Quarter-century assessment Journal of Forecasting 43(5),pp.1399-1421 (Single)
3.	2024/08	Article	Rationality and information advantage of the Japanese government’s construction forecasts over economic development Construction Management and Economics 42(8),pp.671-694 (Single)
4.	2024/05	Article	Firms’ economic growth expectations and reactions to micro and macro news in Japan Applied Economics Letters (Collaboration)
5.	2023/10	Article	Information advantage of narratives to consumers’ inflation forecasts Applied Economics Letters pp.1-6 (Collaboration)
6.	2023/09	Article	Directional Accuracy of Singapore’s Macroeconomic Forecasts Singapore Economic Review 68(5),pp.1569-1583 (Collaboration)
7.	2023/05	Article	Are Illicit Drugs a Driving Force for Cryptomarket Leadership? Journal of Drug Issues 53(3),pp.451-474 (Collaboration)
8.	2023/04	Article	Asymmetric loss and the rationality of consumers’ inflation forecasts: evidence from the US Applied Economics Letters 30(10),pp.1298-1307 (Single)
9.	2023/04	Article	Consumers’ perceived and expected inflation in South Korea Applied Economics Letters 30(11),pp.1561-1565 (Collaboration)
10.	2023/03	Article	Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts Economic Analysis and Policy 77,pp.64-84 (Single)
11.	2022/09	Article	Consumers’ perceived and expected inflation in Japan—irrationality or asymmetric loss? Empirical Economics 63(3),pp.1247-1292 (Collaboration)
12.	2022/08	Article	Evaluating plant managers’ production plans over business cycles: asymmetric loss and rationality SN Business & Economics 2 (Single)
13.	2022/03	Article	Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts Economic Analysis and Policy 73,pp.321-330 (Single)
14.	2021/11	Article	Thirty-year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 35(2),pp.18-40 (Single)
15.	2021/10	Article	How cryptocurrency is laundered: Case study of Coincheck hacking incident Forensic Science International: Reports pp.100241-100241 (Collaboration)
16.	2021/08	Article	Accuracy and Asymmetry of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s Range Forecasts Empirical Economics Letters 20(8),pp.1469-1477 (Single)
17.	2021/08	Article	Asymmetric Loss of Macroeconomic Forecasts in South Asia: Evidence from the SPF Survey of India, Indonesia, and Singapore Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 57(12),pp.3489-3507 (Collaboration)
18.	2021/08	Article	Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts Empirical Economics 61(2),pp.919-945 (Single)
19.	2021/08	Article	The predictive power of ECB’s interval forecasts over point forecasts Applied Economics Letters 28(16),pp.1413-1418 (Single)
20.	2021/08	Article	The value added of the Bank of Japan’s range forecasts Journal of Forecasting 40(5),pp.817-833 (Single)
21.	2021/07	Article	Multivariate asymmetric loss functions of the European Central Bank Applied Economics Letters 28(12),pp.1026-1030 (Single)
22.	2021/03	Article	Dark web in the dark: Investigating when transactions take place on cryptomarkets Forensic Science International: Digital Investigation 36,pp.301093-301093 (Collaboration)
23.	2020/12	Article	Measuring dark web marketplaces via Bitcoin transactions: From birth to independence Forensic Science International: Digital Investigation 35,pp.301086-301086 (Collaboration)
24.	2019/10	Article	Asymmetric Loss and the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South Korea Pacific Economic Review 24(4),pp.588-605 (Collaboration)
25.	2018/05	Article	Measuring consensus and dissensus: A generalized index of disagreement using conditional probability Information Sciences 439-440,pp.50-60 (Collaboration)
26.	2016/11	Article	Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis Economic Modelling 58,pp.1-8 (Single)
27.	2016/09	Article	Asymmetric loss and rationality of Chinese renminbi forecasts: An implication for the trade between China and the US Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money 44,pp.116-127 (Single)
28.	2016/04	Article	Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function International Journal of Forecasting 32(2),pp.233-242 (Single)
29.	2016/02	Article	Directional analysis of consumers' forecasts of inflation in a small open economy: evidence from South Korea Applied Economics 48(10),pp.854-864 (Collaboration)
30.	2016/01	Article	Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition International Review of Economics & Finance 41,pp.189-201 (Single)
31.	2016/01	Article	Dynamic Laffer curves, population growth and public debt overhangs International Review of Economics & Finance 41,pp.40-52 (Single)
32.	2015/11	Article	Asymmetric loss and herding behaviour of exchange rate forecasters: evidence from South Africa Applied Economics 47(54),pp.5841-5852 (Collaboration)
33.	2015/10	Article	Directional accuracy tests of Chinese renminbi forecasts Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 13(4),pp.397-406 (Collaboration)
34.	2015/09	Article	Herding behavior and loss functions of exchange rate forecasters over interventions and financial crises International Review of Economics & Finance 39,pp.266-276 (Single)
35.	2015/09	Article	Simple Analytics of the Dynamic Laffer Curve Under Alternative Financing Schemes Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik) 61(3),pp.199-227 (Single)
36.	2015/02	Article	Linkages among commodity futures prices in the recent financial crisis: An application of cointegration tests with a structural break Cogent Economics and Finance 3(1) (Single)
37.	2014/05	Article	Joint evaluation of the directional accuracy of federal budget forecasts Applied Economics Letters 21(8),pp.582-585 (Single)
38.	2014/04	Article	Are consumer sentiments useful in Japan? An application of a new market-timing test Applied Economics Letters 21(5),pp.356-359 (Single)
39.	2014/01	Article	A directional evaluation of corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts Applied Economics 46(1),pp.95-101 (Single)
40.	2014/01	Article	Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test International Review of Economics & Finance 29,pp.599-618 (Single)
41.	2013/10	Article	Are production managers' forecasts useful? Joint evaluation and robustness Applied Economics Letters 20(15),pp.1403-1406 (Single)
42.	2013/08	Article	Evaluating corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts under a flexible loss function Applied Economics Letters 20(12),pp.1135-1138 (Single)
43.	2013/08	Article	Joint evaluation of the directional accuracy of corporate executives’ forecasts Applied Economics Letters (Single)
44.	2013/01	Article	Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test Economics Letters 118(1),pp.118-120 (Single)
45.	2013/01	Article	Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis Economic Modelling 30(1),pp.167-174 (Single)
46.	2012/09	Article	Evaluating Japanese corporate executives' forecasts under an asymmetric loss function Economics Letters 116(3),pp.601-603 (Single)
47.	2012/04	Article	Is the purchasing managers' index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis Economics Bulletin 32(2),pp.1302-1311 (Single)
48.	2010/07	Article	Linkages among precious metals commodity futures prices: Evidence from Tokyo Economics Bulletin 30(3),pp.1-5 (Single)
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■ Conference Presentations

1.	2018/07	Do the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts have additional qualitative information over the Survey of Professional Forecasters' forecasts: Multicategorical variables approach (Joint Statistical Meeting)
2.	2018/06	Do the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts have additional qualitative information over the Survey of Professional Forecasters' forecasts: Multicategorical variables approach (The 38th International Symposium on Forecasting)
3.	2017/07	Uncertainty of budget and macroeconomic forecasting: asymmetric loss or unpredictability of recessions (Joint Statistical Meeting)
4.	2017/06	Uncertainty of budget and macroeconomic forecasting: asymmetric loss or unpredictability of recessions (The 37th International Symposium on Forecasting)
5.	2016/06	Joint evaluation of the Federal Reserve's multihorizon forecasts: A directional analysis (The 36th International Symposium on Forecasting)
6.	2013/06	Simple analytics of the dynamic Laffer curve under alternative financing schemes: bridging the gap between fiscal stimuli and adjustments (The 67th European Meeting of the Econometric Society)
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■ Academic Qualifications

1.	2008/08～2013/06	〔Doctorial Course〕, State University of New York at Buffalo, Completed, Ph.D (Economics)
2.	2003/04～2005/03	〔Doctorial Course (1st Semester)〕, Graduate School, Division of Economics, Osaka University, Completed,
3.	1999/04～2003/03	Waseda University, Graduated,

■ Career History

1.	2023/04～	Professor
2.	2021/04～2023/03	Associate Professor
3.	2019/04～2021/03	Associate Professor
4.	2018/04～2019/03	Associate Professor
5.	2015/04～2018/03	Lecturer
6.	2013/04～2015/03	Lecturer
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■ Academic Associations Membership

1.	2022～	American Economic Association
2.	2016～	Econometric Society

■ Research Topics, Consignment Studies & KAKENHI Researches

2016/04～2018/03

Sources of macroeconomic forecast errors and their impacts on tax revenue estimates (Key Word : )

■ Web Sites

https://sites.google.com/site/yoichitsuchiya/

■ Current Specialized Field

Economic policy (Key Word：Forecasting, Decision making, Applied econometrics, Expectations)