TSUCHIYA YOICHI    Department   Undergraduate School  , School of Commerce    Position   Professor
Research Period	2016/04～2018/03
Research Topic	Sources of macroeconomic forecast errors and their impacts on tax revenue estimates
Research Type	KAKENHI Research
Consignor	Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Research Program Type	Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
KAKENHI Grant No.	16K17119
Responsibility	Representative Researcher
Representative Person	Tsuchiya Yoichi
Details	This study constructs dataset including tax revenue estimates and macroeconomic forecasts by the Japanese government during the period between 1995 and 2016. It shows that those forecast errors are not associated with business cycles or the state of the economy. However, it shows that there are various biases in those estimates and forecasts. Income tax revenue exhibits optimistic biases while corporate tax revenue exhibits prudent biases. Consumption tax revenue does not seem to be biased. Looking at changes in those errors over time, those biases reduces recently, and thus it indicates that the Japanese government is likely to improve its estimates and forecasts.