KATO RYUTA    Department   Professional Graduate School  , Graduate School of Governance Studies    Position   Professor
Research Period	2003～2004
Research Topic	Simulation Analysis of the Public Health Insurance in an Aging Japan with asymmetric Information
Research Type	KAKENHI Research
Consignor	Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Research Program Type	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
KAKENHI Grant No.	15530156
Keyword	Simulation, Public Pension Scheme, Year 2004 Public Pension Reform, Public Health Insurance, Aging Population, Intergenerational Redistribution
Representative Person	KATO Ryuta
Details	This project has examined the effects of the demographic change and the government debt policy in Japan on economic growth and economic welfare, particularly by taking into account the existing public pension scheme as well as national medical expenditure through the existing public health insurance, where a computational overlapping generations model is used within a general equilibrium context. One of the main results of this project is that the tax burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to about 36%, and the social security burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to 23.3% in 2050, even though the government tries to have a positive primary balance by 2010. The ratio of public health insurance benefits to GDP is expected to increase at 1% every 10 years, and the ratio will be around 9.6% in 2050. The 2004 public pension reform will successfully result in a 13 point decrease in the contribution rate from 36.44% to 23.53%, and reduce the social security burden (GDP) ratio by about 8 points from 23.27% to 15.02% in 2050, compared with the benchmark case.