ツチヤ　ヨウイチ   TSUCHIYA YOICHI   土屋　陽一    所属   明治大学  商学部    職種   専任教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2016/02
形態種別	学術雑誌
査読	査読あり
標題	Directional analysis of consumers' forecasts of inflation in a small open economy: evidence from South Korea
執筆形態	共著(筆頭者以外)
掲載誌名	Applied Economics
掲載区分	国外
出版社・発行元	ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
巻・号・頁	48(10),pp.854-864
著者・共著者	Young Bin Ahn, Yoichi Tsuchiya
概要	We evaluate the directional accuracy of consumers' forecasts of inflation in predicting the movement of the actual CPI in a small open economy. In order to do so, we use a method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann (2009), based on South Korean data. By illustrating an application of the new market-timing test, we show that consumers' expectations of inflation are not a useful predictor of the CPI in South Korea. Our findings suggest that the directional accuracy of consumers' 1-year-ahead forecasts of inflation is not affected by the inflation targeting of the Bank of Korea. Our findings also suggest that consumers' 1-year-ahead forecasts of inflation are scattered away from the Bank of Korea's inflation target.
DOI	10.1080/00036846.2015.1088144
ISSN	0003-6846