ツチヤ　ヨウイチ   TSUCHIYA YOICHI   土屋　陽一    所属   明治大学  商学部    職種   専任教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2023/09
形態種別	学術雑誌
査読	査読あり
標題	Directional Accuracy of Singapore’s Macroeconomic Forecasts
執筆形態	共著(筆頭者以外)
掲載誌名	Singapore Economic Review
掲載区分	国外
出版社・発行元	World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt
巻・号・頁	68(5),pp.1569-1583
担当区分	責任著者
国際共著	国際共著
著者・共著者	YOUNG BIN AHN, YOICHI TSUCHIYA
概要	This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead.
DOI	10.1142/s0217590819500541
ISSN	0217-5908
PermalinkURL	https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S0217590819500541