ツチヤ　ヨウイチ   TSUCHIYA YOICHI   土屋　陽一    所属   明治大学  商学部    職種   専任教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2013/01
形態種別	学術雑誌
査読	査読あり
標題	Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis
執筆形態	単著
掲載誌名	Economic Modelling
掲載区分	国外
出版社・発行元	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
巻・号・頁	30(1),pp.167-174
著者・共著者	Yoichi Tsuchiya
概要	Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether forecasts of Gross Domestic Product by corporate executives are valuable to their users. Our findings indicate that all the forecasts with forecast horizons from 1 to 14 months are valuable, whereas established literature indicates that longer-term forecasts tend not to be valuable. This suggests that corporate executives are concerned with and focus on longer-term economic environments and can therefore serve as an important resource for policymakers. However, some of the useful forecasts with real-time data, in particular those in the Tankan survey, are not useful with historical data. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DOI	10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.029
ISSN	0264-9993
PermalinkURL	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84867616330&partnerID=MN8TOARS
researchmap用URL	http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2485-3959