ツチヤ　ヨウイチ   TSUCHIYA YOICHI   土屋　陽一    所属   明治大学  商学部    職種   専任教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2016/01
形態種別	学術雑誌
査読	査読あり
標題	Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition
執筆形態	単著
掲載誌名	International Review of Economics & Finance
掲載区分	国外
出版社・発行元	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
巻・号・頁	41,pp.189-201
著者・共著者	Yoichi Tsuchiya
概要	This study evaluates directional accuracy of long-term interest rate and nominal GDP growth forecasts made by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and private forecasters by applying a recently developed market-timing test. This study also investigates whether these forecasts provide useful indicators of the well-known Domar's fiscal sustainability condition and whether directional accuracy differs between ruling parties and the state of the economy. This study finds that the CBO forecast for Domar's condition is useful with a two-year horizon, whereas OMB and private forecasts are only useful with a one year horizon. The directional accuracy of the forecasts does not differ between expansion and recession. (c) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
DOI	10.1016/j.iref.2015.08.012
ISSN	1059-0560