|
TSUCHIYA YOICHI
Department Undergraduate School , School of Commerce Position Professor |
|
| Language | English |
| Publication Date | 2016/01 |
| Type | Academic Journal |
| Peer Review | Peer reviewed |
| Title | Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition |
| Contribution Type | Sole-authored |
| Journal | International Review of Economics & Finance |
| Journal Type | Another Country |
| Publisher | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| Volume, Issue, Page | 41,pp.189-201 |
| Author and coauthor | Yoichi Tsuchiya |
| Details | This study evaluates directional accuracy of long-term interest rate and nominal GDP growth forecasts made by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and private forecasters by applying a recently developed market-timing test. This study also investigates whether these forecasts provide useful indicators of the well-known Domar's fiscal sustainability condition and whether directional accuracy differs between ruling parties and the state of the economy. This study finds that the CBO forecast for Domar's condition is useful with a two-year horizon, whereas OMB and private forecasts are only useful with a one year horizon. The directional accuracy of the forecasts does not differ between expansion and recession. (c) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.iref.2015.08.012 |
| ISSN | 1059-0560 |