ツチヤ　ヨウイチ   TSUCHIYA YOICHI   土屋　陽一    所属   明治大学  商学部    職種   専任教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2016/11
形態種別	学術雑誌
査読	査読あり
標題	Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis
執筆形態	単著
掲載誌名	Economic Modelling
掲載区分	国外
出版社・発行元	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
巻・号・頁	58,pp.1-8
著者・共著者	Yoichi Tsuchiya
概要	This study evaluates the directional accuracy of production managers' forecasts by using a new market-timing test. By extending the directional analysis to the 4 x 4 case, this study investigates whether Japanese production managers' forecasts correctly predict turning points in production across different industries. This fills a gap in the literature that focused on predicting increase/decrease or acceleration/deceleration using directional analysis of the 2 x 2 case. It also illustrates its merit over the 2 x 2 case. This study shows that majority of the forecasts are not useful in predicting turning points in production; however, they are useful in predicting increase/decrease in production. Our findings suggest that the production managers' forecasts serve as early qualitative information of expansion and contraction on the Japanese economy and their accuracy does not differ by phases of business cycles. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DOI	10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.019
ISSN	0264-9993
PermalinkURL	http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2485-3959