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TSUCHIYA YOICHI
Department Undergraduate School , School of Commerce Position Professor |
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| Language | English |
| Publication Date | 2023/09 |
| Type | Academic Journal |
| Peer Review | Peer reviewed |
| Title | Directional Accuracy of Singapore’s Macroeconomic Forecasts |
| Contribution Type | Co-authored (other than first author) |
| Journal | Singapore Economic Review |
| Journal Type | Another Country |
| Publisher | World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt |
| Volume, Issue, Page | 68(5),pp.1569-1583 |
| Authorship | Corresponding author |
| International coauthorship | International coauthorship |
| Author and coauthor | YOUNG BIN AHN, YOICHI TSUCHIYA |
| Details | This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead. |
| DOI | 10.1142/s0217590819500541 |
| ISSN | 0217-5908 |
| PermalinkURL | https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S0217590819500541 |