コバヤシ　ゲンヤ   KOBAYASHI GENYA   小林　弦矢    所属   明治大学  商学部    職種   専任教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2020
形態種別	学術雑誌
査読	査読あり
標題	Predicting intervention effect for COVID-19 in Japan: state space modeling approach
執筆形態	共著(筆頭者)
掲載誌名	BioScience Trends
掲載区分	国外
出版社・発行元	International Research and Cooperation Association for Bio & Socio-Sciences Advancement (IRCA-BSSA)
巻・号・頁	14(3),pp.174-181
著者・共著者	Genya Kobayashi, Shonosuke Sugasawa, Hiromasa Tamae, Takayuki Ozu
概要	Japan has observed a surge in the number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that has caused a serious impact on the society especially after the declaration of the state of emergency on April 7, 2020. This study analyzes the real time data from March 1 to April 22, 2020 by adopting a sophisticated statistical modeling based on the state space model combined with the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. The model estimation and forecasting are conducted using the Bayesian methodology. The present study provides the parameter estimates of the unknown parameters that critically determine the epidemic process derived from the SIR model and prediction of the future transition of the infectious proportion including the size and timing of the epidemic peak with the prediction intervals that naturally accounts for the uncertainty.
DOI	10.5582/bst.2020.03133
ISSN	1881-7815
PermalinkURL	https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/advpub/0/advpub_2020.03133/_pdf