ヤマダ　トモアキ   Yamada Tomoaki   山田　知明    所属   明治大学  商学部    職種   専任教授
発表年月日	2013/08
発表テーマ	Achieving Fiscal Balance in Japan
会議名	67th European Meeting of the Econometric Society
学会区分	国際学会
発表形式	口頭（一般）
単独共同区分	共同
発表者・共同発表者	Selahattin Imrohoroglu, Sagiri Kitao
概要	Japan's population is aging fast and the ratio of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to GDP is highest among advanced economies. In addition, further government spending is expected, causing concerns about the potential for JGBs to become a significant global issue. In this paper we build a micro-data based, large-scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules in detail. We estimate age-consumption and age-earnings profiles from micro data, assume complete markets and use these to generate tax revenues and transfer payments for government accounts. We calibrate the model so that it replicates the main macroeconomic and fiscal indicators for 2010. Using existing pension law and fiscal parameters and the medium variants of fertility and survival probability projections, we produce future time paths for JGBs and the pension fund.